4) Daily, Intermediate, Yearly Cycles

A cycle is a series of prices that have a definable peak surrounded by a low point on both ends. The three cycles that we discuss are the Daily, Intermediate (weekly) & Yearly Cycles

A series of daily cycles comprise an intermediate cycle. A series of intermediate cycles comprise a yearly cycle. Cycles are measured from cycle low to cycle low.

The Daily Cycle

The smallest cycle that we discuss is the daily cycle. The daily cycle averages about 20 – 25 days for the dollar, gold, the Miners, the CRB and bonds. The equities daily cycle runs about 30 – 45 days. Three to five daily cycles tend to comprise an intermediate cycle.

The above chart is a daily chart that shows the four daily cycles that comprise the first intermediate cycle for bonds in 2011.

The first daily cycle peaked on day 11 and printed its daily cycle low (DCL) on day 18. It was a right translated daily cycle low — notated as 18 RT.

The second daily cycle peaked on day 6 and printed its DCL on day 23. Since the cycle peaked prior to the cycle mid point this was a left translated cycle notated as 23 LT. Since this daily cycle did not break below the previous daily cycle low.\, this was not a failed daily cycle.

The third daily cycle peaked on day 17. It printed its DCL on day 22 — notated as 22 RT.

The fourth daily cycle peaked on day 13. Since the cycle peaked in the first half of cycle, it is a left translated cycle. It went on to print a DCL on day 33, notated as 33 LT. Price also broke below the previous daily cycle low. That is a failed daily cycle. A failed daily cycle signals and intermediate cycle decline.

The Intermediate Cycle

The next smallest cycle we study is the intermediate cycle. The intermediate cycle is comprised of 2 – 5 daily cycles. Just like a daily cycle can be right or left translated, so can intermediate cycles. Daily cycles will print higher daily cycle highs and higher daily cycle lows until the intermediate cycle peak. As we mentioned above, a failed daily cycle signals the intermediate cycle decline.

We will now look at the 2011 yearly bond cycle as comprised by its intermediate cycles. The first intermediate cycle peaked on week 19 and bottomed on week 20. and is notated — 20 RT. Please notice the trend line break that occurred going into week 20. A trend line break is another tool that we use to identify an intermediate cycle decline. This bottom occurred in the normal timing band for an intermediate cycle low for bonds.

The second intermediate bond cycle formed a weekly swing low on week 2. This helped to confirm a new intermediate cycle. The second weekly bond cycle for 2011 peaked on week 14 and printed its intermediate cycle low (ICL) on week 17. Again the break of the intermediate trend line signaled the intermediate cycle decline.

The third intermediate bond cycle for 2011 peaked on week 8 and formed a weekly swing high on week 9. There was also a weekly trend line break between weeks 8 and week 9. That signals an intermediate cycle decline. (The failed daily cycle that printed in January, 2012 would help to confirm the intermediate cycle decline.) The weekly cycle low that printed on week 21 broke below the October intermediate low. Which means that this third intermediate cycle is a failed intermediate cycle. A failed intermediate cycle is required for a yearly cycle decline.

The Yearly Cycle

The yearly cycle is the largest of the three cycles that we study. The yearly cycle is normally comprised of 2 – 4 intermediate cycles. Very rarely does a yearly cycle only contain one intermediate cycle.

We will continue with the 2011-2012 bond cycle.

Bonds began a yearly cycle decline in September of 2010. Bonds printed its lowest point in February of 2011. There was a trend break accompanied by a monthly swing low that formed in March, 2011. That marked February as the yearly cycle low. The yearly bond cycle peaked on month 8 but did not form a monthly swing high until month 13, which was the yearly cycle low. But there was a trend break after month 10 to signal the yearly cycle decline. March 2013 was the lowest point following the peak on month 8, which occurred in October. A monthly swing low formed in April. May saw a bullish follow through that delivered clear and convincing evidence of the declining monthly trend line to confirm a new yearly cycle.

1 Response to 4) Daily, Intermediate, Yearly Cycles

  1. gulderen kayir says:

    For gold if İCL=YCL then will it break march 2020 low.

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